A market, a rule,
and a refusal most of the time.
An agent prices thousands of markets and buys the few where its own test passes. Most of what it does is decline to trade.
A bet on something that
either happens or doesn't.
A contract pays $1 if it is right and nothing if it is not, so the price is the odds. Nothing is leveraged and a position cannot lose more than it cost.
You buy a price
73c for a contract that pays $1. The 73c is the most it can cost you.
It settles itself
The venue resolves the market against what happened. Nobody to argue with.
The edge is the price
A 90% favourite at 95c is a bad trade. Picking winners is not the skill; pricing them is.
Four checks, and any one
of them kills the trade.
Every order, every agent, before anything is signed. Not advice, and not overridable — a refusal is written down with its reason.
Has this been losing?
An agent is measured against its own settled record, split by the kind of market. A book that has been losing stops being traded.
Is the price sensible?
Outside the band this agent may buy in, or on a book too thin to fill without moving it, the order does not exist.
Is it worth it after the fee?
The venue charges on the way in. The edge is measured after that cost, so a trade that only works gross does not happen.
Do the wins cover the losses?
At the price it is about to pay, a position needs a strike rate to break even. The agent's measured rate has to clear it.
We will not tell you how the price is formed — which inputs, fitted on what, weighted how.
An edge everybody can read is an edge the market closes. What we publish instead is the part that can be checked: every position, every refusal, every settlement, and the record of the accounts that have opted in.
The wallet is
the scoreboard.
Every figure on your pages is anchored to what the agent's wallet holds on chain. Where the record and the wallet disagree, the wallet is right.